The United States isconsidered to be a superpower in the world, and it has its influence on theevents that occur in the world and the relations with other states. Currently,in the Sea of Japan region, there is an impressive American squadron consistingof three aircraft carriers – “Carl Vinson,” “Ronald Reagan”and “Nimitz,” carrying cruise missiles of the Tomahawk type on board1.This situation causes worryings of the North Korean government and army. NorthKorea is in difficult international position because of its serious ambitionstowards the division of powers in the world. When shadowing the US militaryjet, the North Korean military jet caused the crash of both. Fortunately, noneof the pilots died.
Both of the pilots managed to catapult and rescued.Nevertheless, it was a strict violation of international and peace rules. Firstof all, North Korea had no direct right to shadow the US flying object. Theplace where the US army is situated is considered to be the American territory.
The airspace is not an exception to the rule. North Korea is trying to control thepreparation and readiness of the United States army for any militaryconfrontation. That is why they use fast military jets to take photos of thesituation throughout the US military territory. The authorities of North Koreacontinue their missile tests, despite the indignation of the world community.On September 3, the most powerful nuclear bomb in the country’s history wasundermined in North Korea2.
This state is preparing both morally and physically for a potential war withthe U.S and possibly, the world. The same operation was conducted that day.
Atthe same time, the US military jet was observing and controlling the territoryover the Sea of Japan to take the territory safely. But it happened the pilotof the North Korean jet did not see and did not manage to avoid a ?lash with anAmerican jet. Although, the reaction of two pilots was enough to commit thecatapult and save their lives. In such a way, both sides experienced onlymaterial damages. However, the immediate reaction of the US side was resoluteand bloody. The US thought that it wasdeliberate intention of North Korea to start any military actions against theUnited States. But after analyzing the previous history and experience of thecountry, the US military department decided not to be in a hurry with theconsequences which could lead to the third world war. In 1962, during theperiod of Cuban missile crisis, Castro’s army also shot the jet that tried toexamine the territory of Cuba and the presence of missiles in the region3.
However, the US government managed to keep calm and not to start a war, despitethe fact that the US army was ready to start it. This episode was brightlydepicted in the movie “Thirteen days.”4 Kennedywas clever enough not to report about the detail of the accident to the ArmyChief. There are lots of similar to a certain extent accidents in the worldhistory. Thus, in 2014 over the Donbass (territory of Ukraine) the MalaysianBoeing was shot down5.This territory is a subject of confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.
It isassumed that Russian terrorists shot down the plane accidentally. In any case,298 people died as a result. This accident also could cause the severeinternational confrontation between Russia and other superpowers6.However, the international community does not accuse Russian in order not tocause the irreversible army conflict which could destroy the whole world. In such a way, there are totwo viable policy approaches that the United States could take toward thesituation that happened over the Sea of Japan. The US government can forgivethe North Korean side this accident and take it as the stupid coincidence.
Although, if it was an intentional act of North Korea, the US should thinkabout the consequences not only to the United States but the whole world. Theonly decision would be to subscribe the memorandum of the prohibition ofshadowing for the North Korean jets the territories that belong to the UnitedStates. This will give a chance to avoid any military confrontation, which,although, is expected during the long period.
But, it is necessary to evaluatethe consequences of the army conflict for the whole world.The second decision wouldstart the military confrontation with the North Korean army. And the UnitedStates would have the direct right to this because from the North Korean sideit was a severe violation of the US space and security. When to evaluate thestrengths of both sides, the US army prevails over the army of North Korea.However, the latter is strengthening its positions by acquiring more powermissiles and other weapons.
But it is necessary to take into account that welive in the 21st century where each side has its supporters. In such a way, thewhole world could be involved in the war where nuclear power could be used. Itcould lead to the complete collapse.
Taking into account the UShistory and its relations with North Korea, the most suitable decision would benot to start the open military confrontation. If to talk about the relationsbetween Pyongyang and Washington, then maybe we need to look a little intohistory. In fact, North Korea has always wanted to negotiate with America.Pyongyang has always, even with the father of the current leader demandeddirect negotiations with the US on the resolution of the Korean crisis,including missile and nuclear programs7.
Evenunder the administration of Bill Clinton, the parties came very close to thenegotiations, but already with George W. Bush, America and North Korea beganthe same thing that we see now. Now, after 15 years, we are witnessing thesecond round of diplomatic bickering between the United States and North Korea8.Both sides declare that they will destroy each other. North Korea threatenswith missiles. The US, of course, does not threaten a nuclear strike.
Trumpsimply stated that he would erase North Korea from the face of the earth. Andso the leaders exchange unflattering statements about each other. In hisTwitter, Trump wrote: “Just heardForeign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of LittleRocket Man, they won’t be around much longer!”9.
In such away the absence of exits leads to the personal offenses from both sides. In fact, this is a new confrontation,but so far it is only at the level of words. I think that, as in the course ofthe Caribbean crisis in 1962, when the USSR and the US were on the verge ofnuclear war, this should not lead to disaster. After all, it really will be atleast the regional catastrophe. And then it will transform into the world ifthe conflict will use nuclear weapons. A new administration has arrived in theUnited States, it must establish itself.
The North Korean regime also wants toshow the US administration that it has achieved some success in the developmentof missile and nuclear weapons. But neither side is ready to destroy each other10.Even for the war in Iraq, it took America about six months to concentrate thenecessary number of troops for such a major operation.At the same time, Korea isthreatened not so much by the United States as by US bases deployed in Asia, onJapanese islands, Okinawa and Guam in the Pacific. This is the maximum whereNorth Korean missiles can fly. North Korea has never launched more than onedozen of missiles simultaneously11.Moreover, as they say, not all of the launches took place in the regular mode.There is a bluff.
And for North Korea – this, of course, is also a kind ofpropaganda for the consolidation of support for the regime. This all affectsthe population, which is in an isolated closed space where people do notreceive information from outside.It is possible to name a fewcountries that have always been and remain allies of North Korea. These areprimarily Russia and China. But now they really see that the North Koreanregime has passed a certain line – testing neutron weapons, sufficientlypowerful medium-range missiles.
Thisforced even traditional partners of North Korea to reject the Pyongyang’ssupport. Ten years ago there were so-called six-party talks on North Korea.They involved the United States, Russia, China, North Korea, South Korea andJapan. But these negotiations broke for a very trivial reason: America tried toinsert here the issue of missile weapons12. Andthese are two completely different tracks.
The other reasons forabandonment of hostilities are that the world knows very little about whatNorth Korea has. This country is rather closed. And to judge the power ofrockets and nuclear tests, we can only by indirect signs. When, for example, aparade is held in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and some newmodels of rocket technology are shown for the first time, then only by thediameter of the rockets, by their length it is possible to assume what thesemissiles are, what they look like. As a rule, this is a reworked Soviettechnology.
As for the nuclear program, it is even harder to establish. We knowthat on September 5, 2017, Korea has tested, as it said, a neutron bomb and isalready threatening a new such test13. But,again, we can judge about the power of this bomb only by the earthquake that itcaused. In mid-August, the North Korean leader for the first time declared thattheir missile could now fly to a distance of up to 3,000 kilometers. And such amissile can get Guam. World leaders failed to makeour world safer: they could not agree on how to stop the spread of nuclearweapons around the world. Nuclear states were India, Pakistan, Israel.
Now itis North Korea. There is no prevention mechanism. And North Korea so outragedeveryone, unlike previous examples, by the fact that it threatens the UnitedStates. Neither India nor Pakistan threatens the US with its missiles ornuclear weapons. They were allowed to have this weapon quietly, and no one ispaying attention to them now.
If earlier it was possible to eliminate thethreat point-by-point (when there were one or two factories that carried outresearch functions), now North Korea already states that it is at the stage ofcreating its missile forces, its nuclear weapons14. Therefore,it will be difficult even for high-precision, but non-nuclear weapons todestroy the North Korean nuclear arsenal.Taking into account all thesaid above, it would be reasonable to state that the soberest solution ofexisting conflict will be to avoid any hints to the military confrontation.Seeking some ways for negotiations is necessary.
Also, it is possible to returnto this six-sided format or to act through the UNO. But sanctions – and manydiplomats admit it – have already reached their peak of effectiveness. Withsanctions, US can achieve little from the North Korean regime, which is alreadycompletely isolated.1 Ben Brimelow, “7 US aircraft carriersare at sea for the first time in years – here’s what they’re doing,”Business Insider, November 08, 2017, , accessed December 13, 2017,http://www.businessinsider.com/7-us-aircraft-carriers-are-at-sea-while-trump-is-in-asia-2017-11/#the-uss-ronald-reagan-just-finished-a-three-day-drill-in-the-sea-of-japan-with-a-japanese-destroyer-and-two-indian-warships-1.
2 Alex Ward, “North Korea just tested itsmost powerful nuclear bomb yet,” Vox, September 03, 2017, , accessedDecember 13, 2017,https://www.vox.com/2017/9/3/16248844/north-korea-nuclear-test-september-3-2017.
3 Gary Jeffrey and Terry Riley, The Cuban Missile Crisis (St.Catharines, Ontario: Crabtree Publishing Company, 2014), 38-40.4 Thirteendays, dir. Roger Donaldson, Thirteen days, 20005 Nick Miller, “MH17 was shot down frompro-Russian rebel controlled territory, investigation finds,” The Sydney Morning Herald, September 28,2016, , accessed December 13, 2017, http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh17-was-shot-down-from-prorussian-rebel-controlled-territory-investigation-finds-20160928-grqter.html.6 Nick Miller, “MH17 was shot down frompro-Russian rebel controlled territory, investigation finds,” September28, 20167 Ben Westcott, “Could North Korean, USthreats of destruction cause an accidental war?” CNN, September 26, 2017,, accessed December 13, 2017,http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/26/asia/north-korea-us-accidental-war/index.html8 “The Way Forward on North Korea,”The New York Times, July 04, 2017, , accessed December 13, 2017,https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/04/opinion/north-korea-nuclear-program-trump.html.9 Ben Westcott, “Could North Korean, USthreats of destruction cause an accidental war?” CNN, September 26, 2017,, accessed December 13, 2017,http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/26/asia/north-korea-us-accidental-war/index.html10 Gary Jeffrey and Terry Riley, The Cuban Missile Crisis (St.Catharines, Ontario: Crabtree Publishing Company, 2014), 112.11 Mary Dejevsky, “The UN vote againstNorth Korea shows the system working – for once | Mary Dejevsky,” TheGuardian, August 06, 2017, , accessed December 13, 2017,https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/06/north-korea-un-vote-russia-china-resolution-2371.12 Samuel Ramani, “Analysis | Why is Putinbacking North Korea? To build up Russia as a great power.,” The WashingtonPost, July 26, 2017, , accessed December 13, 2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/26/why-is-putin-backing-north-korea-to-build-up-russia-as-a-great-power/?utm_term=.7defe460e35d.13 Alex Ward, “North Korea just tested itsmost powerful nuclear bomb yet,” Vox, September 03, 2017, , accessedDecember 13, 2017, https://www.vox.com/2017/9/3/16248844/north-korea-nuclear-test-september-3-2017.14 Elbridge Colby, “The Role of NuclearWeapons in the U.S.-Russian Relationship,” Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, February 2016, , accessed December 13, 2017,http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/02/26/role-of-nuclear-weapons-in-u.s.-russian-relationship-pub-62901