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 Research Proposal

 

 

Impacts of Time Trends in Colombo Rainfall Pattern on Design
Rain Events

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A.K.D.Y.
Abeywickrama

140012C

Supervisor(s):

 

Dr.
T.M.N. Wijayaratna

 

 

 

 

12th
January, 2018

 

Department
of Civil Engineering

Faculty
of Engineering

UNIVERSITY
OF MORATUWA – SRI LANKA

Table of Contents

 

Use Times New Roman
(12 pt) to write the Table of Contents.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your proposal content should consist of;

 

Introduction
Problem Statement
Significance of the
research
Scope of the study
Aims and Objectives of the
research
Hypothesis (if any)
Proposed Methodology
Time schedule/work plan
Budget/estimated cost
built up
Bibliography/References

Introduction

 

 

 

Water is a basic human need
and as a country, which its economy is considerably depend on the rainfall and
availability of the water resources, studies conducted in Rainfall pattern
analysis is really important for Sri Lanka. Rainfall in Sri Lanka is governed
by the seasonal varying monsoon system in Indian Ocean. There are two inter
monsoon seasons (first and second inter monsoon) and two principal rainfall
seasons (south-west and north-east monsoon). Over the past few decades due to
deforestation, population growth, environmental pollution, rise of greenhouse
gases and many other factors, balance in the environment was affected in a bad
manner. Therefore regular rainfall pattern in Sri Lanka over the past is also
seems to be affected. 

Rainfall is a key element in
several fields such as agriculture, hydropower, irrigation etc. So it is very
important to identify the patterns (time, space trends in rainfall). But even
with the modern sophisticated technologies it is very difficult to forecast the
rainfall accurately.

 

 

 

Problem Statement

 

 

Even though the rainfall is
important in many industries and in the economy of the country, it has some
adverse and destructive effects such as floods due to excessive rainfall. Over
the past year Sri Lanka was heavily affected by number of severe floods and
last year even a portion of Southern Expressway (which was designed for a 100
year return period) was flooded. So it is believed that the annual
precipitation is increased. But these heavy rainfalls was normally followed by
severe droughts which last for months. So this situation is not a healthy
scenario for the economy of the country. Therefore a study in rainfall pattern
analysis is far more important. 

 

 

 

 

Significance of
the Research

 

The aim of this research is to identify the
impacts on time trends in Colombo rainfall pattern on design rain events. As
the capital of Sri Lanka, Colombo has a far more importance than other cities
since it is the economical center of the country. There are three main major characteristics in
rainfall such as intensity, frequency and amount. A reasonable knowledge in
those parameters will come in handy when designing, planning and managing
rainfall related activities.

 

 

 

Scope of the Study

 

 

This
research mainly focused on the analysis of rainfall patterns in Colombo by
analyzing the data collected from Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka and
analyzing them using non-parametric Mann-Kendal trend test, linear regression
method analysis and Sen’s slope estimator method. (Karunathilaka, Dabare, & Nandalal, 2017)

 

Aims and
Objectives of the Research

 

The
main objective of this research is to identify the time trends (if there is
any) in Colombo rainfall pattern and to predict future rainfall patterns using
appropriate mathematical methods.

 

Proposed
Methodology

·        
Refer
adequate related literature on rainfall pattern analysis

·        
Obtain
relevant rainfall data from Department of Meteorology

·        
Data
presentation in suitable graphs

·        
Selection
of suitable methods to analyze the data

·        
Data
analysis

·        
Identify
the trends in rainfall (if there is any)

·        
Predictions
for the future rainfall trends based on the research

 

Time Schedule

 

Task

2017

2018

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

References

 

Use APA 6th Reference style for the
references/bibliography and in-text citations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Submission

 

Rename your file as “CE4902A01_Index no”
and submit the pdf format files via Moodle and the submission portal will
appear on 10th January 2018 until 12th January 16:00 hrs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                      

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