The Johns Hopkins University How Should the US respond to Modern Latin American Revolutionary Movements? Chris Fernando Terrorism and Counterterrorism/AS. 191. 390. 01 Professor Max Brahms 21 December 2012 Introduction and Thesis Ever since the tragedy surrounding the attacks of September 1 1 the, 2001 , the United States and her allies have placed an almost unmitigated focus on terrorism in the Middle East. While that focus is not misplaced, the nature of terrorist insurgency movements in Latin America matter more significantly for America’s regional and global hegemonic status in the long term.From a purely historical perspective, the Monroe Doctrine in 1823, exhorting European powers to end their meddlesome machinations in Latin America.
In 1823, the United States was demonstrating its commitment to regional hegemony. As 2013 arrives, America is now struggling to maintain its role as the world’s lone superpower. This role is entirely dependent on the US’ unquestioned influence over the entirety of the Western Hemisphere.New provocative threats have arisen to challenge US influence in Latin America, however; most notable among them are those states forming what has become known as the Pink Tide”. The Pink Tide refers to the phenomenon in Latin America of Socialist sympathizers assuming control of state power over the past decade or so.
It is my firm belief that the United States can regain its footing over the rising influence of the Pink Tide by the way it confronts future terrorist threats.Before heading further into this introduction, I wish to define what I mean by Revolution and Democracy, two words I will use often in the construction of the coming analysis. The political scientist Anamosa Regain defines revolution “to include movements that seek the overthrow of a political regime, even if they fail to attain this goal. “l Regain goes on to say that “Political revolution refers to abrupt, illegal mass violence aimed at the overthrow of the political regime as a step toward over-all social change. 2 1 firmly believe Raja’s definition clearly defines and encompasses both the FEM….
. Revolution and the Shining Path revolution. In terms of a fluid definition for Democracy, I yield to Terry Kart’s conceptualization, which is as follows: “[Democracy is] a set of institutions that permits the entire adult population to act as citizens by choosing their leading cession-makers in competitive, fair, and regularly scheduled election which are held in the context of the rule of law, guarantees for political freedom, and limited military prerogatives.
3 The reason why Terry Kart’s definition works well here, as Cynthia Monoclinic explains, is because “of its inclusion of the subordination of the military to civilian authority as a criterion. “4 This is exceptionally important, for the case studies utilized in this study involve the Latin American revolutionary groups Senders Luminous (hereby referred to as Shining Path) and El Salvador Brandon Marti National Liberation Front, (henceforth referred to as the FEM…..).As stated above, I will examine two very pertinent insurgencies associated with the above discussion of US hegemony; El Salvador FEM.
., and Peer’s Shining Path. The purpose of this study is to determine to what extent does the international order matter in the success and failure of terrorist groups in Latin America. By “International Order”, I refer to the distribution of power in the international arena; the US holds its place at the top with the most potent combination of hard and soft power, followed by China and the other permanent members of the United NationsSecurity Council.
A huge debate has erupted among political scientists as to whether or not states matter anymore for fighting domestic insurgencies. With the rise of outside state support for and against domestic insurgent groups, this in itself being aided by vast improvements in technological infrastructure, a large literature has defended the position that outside forces are far and away the most important analytical characteristic of any domestic insurgency.In the case involving the FEM..
… And the Shining Path, we will determine the extent of the veracity of this theory. This s most effectively done by examining the domestic qualities that have served as the dependent variable (the actual revolutions themselves). In choosing both El Salvador FEM.
…. And Peer’s Shining Path, my objective was to delineate two Latin American states with comparable characteristics. For example, both insurgencies “officially’ began in 1980, within a few months of each other.While Peru had a democratically elected government in 1980 (following the capitulation of the military regime in the same year), El Salvador did not host free and fair elections- as described by Professor Cynthia Monoclinic of Georgetown University-until 1984.
However, Monoclinic discusses in her book Revolutionary Movements in Latin America that El Salvador underwent “political opening” in the early sass in order to procure monetary assistance from the United States.The El Salvadoran government had been an extremely oppressive military regime, and only became less of one when it wished to gain assistance from the US administration: “the U. S. Administration assessed…
The character of the incumbent regime relative to the character of the revolutionary organization challenging it and decided not to rescue the regime from the revolutionaries’ challenge. 6 While regime type was not equal at the outset, Macintosh’s “free and fair” designation for both states began to slowly converge to compatibility by 1984.In her book, Monoclinic places a high premium on US intervention playing a crucial role in the ability of the El Salvadoran regime to defeat the FEM…
..; to support her assertion, she cites the Provisional President of El Salvador from 1982-1984, Lavabo Magna: “The attitude of the U. S.
Government, during my tenure as interim president, was what definitely saved this country. “7 However, the Shining Path is a more difficult case to analyze. As Monoclinic states: “By contrast, there is no widespread awareness in the United States that the Peruvian government was endangered by Senders Luminous. 8 Thus, the United States did not lend much in the way of financial or logistical support to the government of Peer’s President, Alberta Fusion. This case example would at first glance seem to contradict the central argument made in this analysis; however, I view it as a telling example of good fortune, and that it serves as a “lucky’ accident that Peru did not fall to the Shining Path insurgency. The United States should learn from this example ND take a more active role in the insurgency movements in Latin America.
Before delving into the idea that International Order matters, first I will provide a brief historical background of the groups aforementioned. Following this preliminary structure, I will further establish the International Order as the overarching independent variable in both these case studies by isolating most other variables; this approach will allow me to see what kind of effect the International Order has had on the structure of the FEM…
.. Terrorist organization, and despite a lack of assistance, whether or not the International Order has in other ways affected the organization and tactical maneuverings of the Shining Path.The University and the Shining Path We begin with the insurgency in Peru. The Shining Path’s armed struggle officially began in 1980, though the leader of the movement, Female Gunman, had originally begun to spur a coherent intellectual movement at Humane University around 1963. Gunman would elevate it to greater prominence by 1970.
Gunman was a Professor at the San CrispГ¶bal of Humane National University, located in Gaucho (in the Andes region of Southern Peru). The fact that Gunman was a Professor is an the Shining Path: “Children,” according to a recent Shining Path document, “must be encouraged to to participate in the popular war..
. They are the future and must change their ideology and adopt that of the proletariat. 10 The Shining Path, as Gordon McCormick points out in his report for the RAND Institute, was very much intent on not only pursuing children and students, but also disaffected intellectuals who felt ideologically isolated in their educational institutions Gunman’s organization highly valued students and teachers because they would be trained intellectually tit Marxist ideals in university settings, then sent back to their regions of residence, where these students and professors would begin to foment rebellion: “Cadre leaving Humane often returned to the countryside to become primary and secondary school instructors for the express purpose of leaving the movement’s mark on the upcoming generation. “11 This sort of perpetuating cycle informs the reader that the Shining Path movement in itself has been fomenting years before the revolution Much like the rise of the red engineers in China during the Cultural Revolution, Gunman’s Moist take on the Shining Path’s revolution places a special focus on education. According to Timothy P.Hickman-Crowley, who has studied changes in Latin American University Enrollments from 1955-1975, Peer’s enrollment during this time period went up 284; Wickerwork’s has the 284% officeholders, indicating strong guerrilla links. By 1975, Peru ranked 4th in all of Latin America for total enrollment of students in universities, with a significant minority maintaining links to the Shining Path or the TuOutpacemMuarevolutionary Group. While these members very important, Wickerwork’s also exhorts his readers to consider that for “Peru, the question should not be overall enrollments, but those at Cinematographer’s, the University of Humanitarianism’s there rose very rapidly to 1 5,000 students-five times the capacity of the university facilities.
13 This substantial increase occurred after elections at Humanitarianism in 1968, leading to vastly greater numbers of enrollments. General Recruitment Techniques of the Shining Path In the study of recruitment techniques, I attempt to illustrate the origins of the Revolution, and the makeup and organization of the Shining Path. By the time the escalloped around, economic stagflation and near anarchic situations in the highlands of Peru and in some parts of Lima had lead to the slow disintegration of civil society. Democratic institutions giving definition to civil society in Peru had almost entirely disintegrated by 1992, during President’s Fussiness’s-administered coup, the autographed estate/p>This idea of the utilization of civil society and the institutions comprising it provided a venue for enlargement and recruitment. Earlier n in the conflict, McCormick testified to the composition of the Shining Path’s rank and file: “[Connoisseurship] is drawn from a cross section of Oppressiveness’s, from poor highland peasants to the large mass of urban unemployed, often recent arrivals to the city, that have come to swell the population of Lima and it environs.
“14 In order to include other groups in society, including “youth, women, the leading proletariat’, the main peasantry, intellectuals, and even the petit and ‘medium’ bourgeois,”1 5 the Shining Path began to make use of front groups for mass manipulation/p>These groups ranged in mission and purpose, from the advancement of these groups were plainly seen as fronts of the Shining Path, “they are able to operate quite openly with little evident concern that they will suffer at the hands of Parameterization government. ” Dissemination of the revolution’s mission was not only confined to front groups; this is more closely explored in an examination of the structural hierarchy of the Shining Path. The Organizational Makeup of the Shining The Shining Path’s main idea for expansion was simple. They would began in the Highlands of Peru, where indigenous people held “a deep-rooted distrust of the interpenetration,”17 and expand out to the cities themselves, primarily Lima.While the plan of the Shining Path was well known by 1990 (the publication of Microbrewery influential piece), its organizational structure was certainly not: “Little is known of Counterrevolutionary’s makeup and dedecommissioningtructure. What is known suggests that Gunman.
Evens its range of operations has spread into most of Pepper’s departments. “18 The structure of the Shining Path was well-established; essentially, Fundamentalists able to establish an image of the indomitable revolutionary hero. The group actively promoted a cult of personality around Gunman’s a result “strategic and political disenfranchisements the movements seems to be centralized. “19 Communicatively led a National Directorate and a Central Committee, both of which sent decisions down in a highly stratified chain of command. 0 While Gauntleted the role of a “magistrate” and heard out opposing viewpoints on a particular set policy, he gave the final word. Regional commands were created in rural and then urban areas, in order to establish greater levels of support and recruitment, and to carry tautologies adopted by the National Directorate and Central Committee. This structure seemed to work extremely well; by 1983, the Shining Path was moving past Accountant the Highlands.
While President Fernando Bladdernut in reinforcements to Gouache was able to disrupt the regional commands of the Shining Path, but the efforts of the Peruvian army led to a civilian death toll of 1000. 1 Eugenically turned government intervention in the Highlands against the government of Blarneyed strengthened the popular support of the regional commands: “Where the government attempted to make a stand, as in Coauthors unmannerly more harm than good, alienating the peasantry and increasing sympathy for the guerrillas. “22 By 1985, the Shining Path had reached most of the nation, including the capital city of Lima. Another illuminating aspect of Shining Path’s organizational structure is its mode of communication.
Communication techniques were also conceived of and implemented on behalf of Guggenheim Micromanagement 1990 analysis of the Shining Path still concedes an ignorance on the part of intelligence agencies as to what Shining Path’s communications system is Kiewit is presumed that Shining Path “[carries most of its communications] through the counterproposal service in code, and through a national network of couriers and dead drops. 23 The mere fact that the Shining Path has kept its communications strategy such a tightly wound secret gives credence to a highly hierarchical organization. Resource Collection The Shining Path used a variety of resources and tactics in the conduct of this areas normally ignored by the Lima government, the extent of resources available to the Shining Path became more widespread. Until the Shining Path reached the Upper Healthfully in Northern Peru and dabbled in drug trafficking for huge revenue receipts, they had been confined to small donations from supporters and “expropriations from local landowners, petty capitalists, and elements of the peasantry who were Judged to be hostile to the movement’s objectives or methods. 24 By involving themselves in mortification’s “financial standing” of the Shining Path had vastly improved, “providing it with an estimated income of between $20 and $30 million a year. “25 The History and Organizational Structure of the FMFEM.efore discussing the International Order and its crucial role in the dynamic tenderhearted and dependent variables (for both case studies), I wish to address the rising importance of the FMFEM.
Having Just discussed the history, recruitment mechanisms, height of power, and organizational structure of the Shining Path, it would be prudent to pursue the same level of rigorous scholarly analysis on the FEM…
../p>The Abortionists National Liberation Front (FMFEM.was established in 1980, formed by “a coalition of five guerrilla groups that had been active previously; each group maintained its own leaders, internal practices, and ideological perspectives. 26 As a result, “the discipline and hierarchy that were hallmarks of the Shining Path did not characterize the FEM…
..”27 The FMFEM.as a highly decentralized organization, much like Added but on the state level.
Originally, the only real Marxist group in El Salvador was the Communist Party of El Salvador (Oversimplification’s Salvador, PC’S 28 Created by the Salvadoran revolutionary Abortionists in 1930, the Capstan actually made illegal by the Salvadoran military government, but received succor from the Soviet Union during its years underground. 29 The armed branch of the Salvadoran Communist Party, theArmed Forces of Liberation (Failures “the influence and international contacts of the Communist party [to] ensure that the guerrilla forces of El Salvador would receive more international aid from the Socialist world than any other Latin American insurgent group ever received during the Cold War. “30 The Escapists splintered in 1970, and the other resultant organization that emerged was the Popular Liberation Front (FLAP headed by CaCetaceanaCarpiCaCarpias frustrated with the “Soviet approach to revolution-the development of popular consciousness through peaceful participation in the electoral process. 31 Cardinalities that now was the time to immobile people to revolution. 32 Certificated heavily for a “prolonged war of national liberation”; in his view, if it worked in Vietnam it would work in El Salvador. 33 From the Apple the ERP, the Popular Revolutionary Army, two years later (1972). 4 The ERP looked towards the Uruguayan terrorists and the ArArgentineanoMontenegroerrorists, and concluded that instead of a prolonged conflict, victory “was possible through urban terrorism and insurrection. “35.
In 1976, the ERP struggled as to whether or not to focus on military action or political action. Eventually, the head of the ERP, Regulations was assassinated by those who believed in the urban military solution. From the ERP, came the Reunite National Resistance. The fifth and final leftist group that would compose the FMFEM.
as the Central American Workers Party It is extremely important to stress that these five groups absolutely despised each other. In the eyes of any casual observer, it would have taken a colossal incentive for these groups to place aside their power struggles and personal vendettas to come together.That colossal incentive came in the form of the Cuban Cooperativeness for El Salvador. The representative conducted a meeting of the leaders of all five factious parties and blatantly told them that “the Cubans and NiNicaraguaSaSandinesswere willing to turn on the pipelines of weapons set up for the Sandiness’s provide massive military training for the Slanderously on the condition that they unite and form a single, coordinated opposition front as the Sandiness’s.
“37 The five leaders of Affinities Revolutionary Directorate created the Popular Revolutionary Bloc (BPR), composed of “all of the internal political organizations that were for the revolution and against the government. 8 It was the manner through which the FMFEM.roadened its base of support; recruits would typically Join one of the five major groups. 39 As the groups formed the FMFEM.
they began to organize the January 1981 “final offensive”. This “final offensive” against the Salvadoran government began a 12 year war and initiated what Fractionated veteran of the Salvadoran revolution) referred to as a “baptism of which continued until the Cheapskates Accords in Mexico City in 1992. Tactics in the Fog of War While decentralization of the FMFEM.ffort lasted until the late aesthete ERP (the revivification for urban terrorism, “news-worthy’ attacks, and insurrection) won out.Following the ERRS lead, the FMFEM.ubbed their overarching military plan “Prolonged Popular War”, and implemented their efforts with three different kinds of warfare: guerrilla, maneuver, and attrition. As will be discussed shortly, the fact that there were five distinct group pursuing three different types of revolutionary insurrection contributed to the success of the FMFEM.
nd showcased their ‘operational flexibility. ’41 The first type of warfare was Guerrilla, pursued by all five factions in heir decade long infringement’s (from 1970-1980). By 1985, the ERP dominated plan was proving to be a failed venture.
The pursuit of guerrilla, maneuver, and attrition warfare wasn’t the problem; the ERRS grandiose chase of “a small number of decisive victories with the armed forces”42 proved disadvantageous.Instead, the Follow wanted to follow a path taken by Ho Chi Minim Vietnam, took control of military operations and “[broke] up battalions and brigades and disperse them into scattered, platoon-size elements. “43 The United States was giving aid to the Salvadoran government that the FMFEM.
could not compete titian the way in which the Pellucid to rationalize a response was to divide their guerrilla troops (trained by Cuba and Nicaragua). The elongation of the conflict, which was the premise of the Flannel’s of war, with the ERRS focus on warfare in more urban areas, led to a peace treaty. Because of US aid, the FMFEM.could have been hard pressed to defeat the Salvadoran army. Had the Salvadoran army been on the brink of collapse, it is likely that either the Reagan or Bush administration would have intervened.This estimation of a hypothetical US response to the Functionality is due in large part to US military intervention in nearby Panama in 1989, as well as the fiasco of interventionist policy in Nicaragua. Why did the FMFEM.
in The three primary reasons why the FMFEM.ucceeded in their endeavors was because of “massive amounts of foreign aid”, “operational flexibility’, and “its permanent effort of recruiting and expanding its base of support. “44 Fractionated David E.
Spencer both conjecture that the amount of aid given to the Salvadoran army and government adulteration $1 billion dollars over the 1980-1992 period. They argue that while US military aid almost certainly saved the Salvadoran overpayment’s falling apart, it “is not in the realm of fantasy to speculate that somewhere near the same figure went to the FMFEM.45 Fractionated Spencer argue the incredible amounts of foreign aid that ended up going to the FMFEM.every guerrilla faction in Latin America (except for the Shining Path) gave money and resources to the FMFEM.Worldwide terrorist organizations such as the Plopped the Basque Advertised the Salvadoran revolutionaries, Vietnam “provided weapons and limited training until late in the war. “46 The Soviet Union, through Fluorinated “financial resources as well as political training. 47 The incredible laundry list of outside state support continues “East Germany, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Ethiopia, Algeria, Angola, and others, all of whom made donations of money, weapons, and advice.
48 In terms of the thesis of this analysis, the FMFEM.ase is a quintessential example of how states in the International Order can determine the overall success and organization of a domestic terrorist group. It was the Cubans and Inaugurated managed to get the left-wing groups to form a union against the oppressive military regime, and it was the Soviets and others who funneled great mounts of resources into the cause. On the other end, had it not been for the financial intervention of the United States, El Chlorofluorocarbons would have likely fallen much earlier than it did. Instead the United States, and the Soviet Union involved themselves in a proxy war that resulted in a stalemate.The conflict was a continuation of Cold War politics on the global stage, and the composition of the International Order did a lot to shape the final outcome of the Salvadoran Revolution. The second factor that assisted the Salvadoran rebels in succeeding through their struggle was their operational flexibility.
As Fractionation’s out, one of the “principal shortcomings”49 of past Latin American revolutionary groups was a tight connection between an overarching ideology and military tactics: “The FMFEM.ever fell into this rigidity; instead, it was dynamic and flexible in its approach. “50 When the ERP plan needed to be modified, the Plan was taken up. The Salvadoran government needed to adapt on the same level as the revolutionaries.
The very structure of their decentralized organization guaranteed the FEM….
. Longer, protracted war. In the Shining Path example, the extremely rigid hierarchy made it assertion the Peruvian government to end the revolution; all they had to do was capture AbFemaleuGunmanwhich they did in September 1992. Though the Shining Path still nominally continues, it has been all but destroyed since Countersignature’s. The final major factor contributing to the Funicular’s (and thus, victory) was “its permanent effort of recruiting and expanding its base of support.
“51 Very much like the Shining Path, the FMFEM.could engage in long and arduous indoctrination of their recruits and would typically only recruit family members of a recruit.While the Shining Path sharply connected ideology with recruitment, the FMFEM.et up an the realization that FMFEM.
could induct unwilling people into the guerrilla forces, and through a series of tiered stages and indoctrination in service, develop guerrilla fighters that could step in and take the place of those that had fallen. “52 This demonstration of quick adaptability went a long way in ensuring concessions from the Salvadoran government. The Independent and Dependent Variables In this study, we have analyzed the two case studies of Peru and El Salvador in depth; now, we turn to an analysis of independent and dependent variables in each asses/p>Cynthia Inconsiderateness the variables in both cases in great detail and begins with the independent variables for Parliamentarian’s revolution. Neoclassicists that the “sine question in Predetermination’s experience was the nation’s economic debacle. “53 According to Monoclinic”the most prominent theorists of revolution writing during the Cold War identified an authoritarian regime type as the key variable in the emergence of revolutionary movements. “54 Cynthia Neoclassicisms El Salvador in this group, the representation of this last kind of Cold War struggle.
However, Mononucleosis asserts that the Shining Path and Peru represent something completely divergent from this Cold War struggle.Instead of revolutions being based on struggles against authoritarian regimes, the Shining Path represents an entirely different kind of revolution in Latin America. The economic debacle encompassed the following: “not only were rural inequality and land scarcity increasing in the highland of Peru but also a threat to peasants’ subsistence emerged.
“55 “The economic decline… Deadheads middle-class expectations of the vast numbers of new university graduates.
56 Analysis of rural income yields that farm income in the highlands of Peru was 30% lower “in the early assassin in 1950. “57 Economic catastrophe also involved Peru undergoing severe hyperinflation.Within a span of about a decade, Peru had switched currencies twice, from the sol, to the Intonation the Novel. While James Piazza would assert that poverty is not a root cause of terrorism, it’s hard to argue against the cogent argument Microelectronics’s. The Peruvian political establishment included a vast spectrum of political parties that included Marxist sympathizers.
The Shining Path’s grievances weren’t a result of disillusionment with political participation. It seems that they took advantage of terrible economic conditions that when coupled with the fact that there remained a “lack of a strong official presence throughout much of Peru. 58 The Shining Path was also well learned on the rural customs of Peru: “Persiflage’s system… [is] physically, culturally, and psychologically remote from life in modern Peru.
“59 Perhaps it is fair to say that the economic debacle served as a catalyst for a pre-existing social construction. The severe economic depression wasn’t the only independent variable affecting Peru. Additionally, there was the International Order. While the International Order’s role in the revolution in El Salvador was more noticeable, it still holds considerable water in the Peruvian case.
After all, “the origins of the Shining Path can be traced to the 1964 fissure within the Peruvian Communist Party (Bucktooth about by the Sino-Soviet Split. 60 Commandeered many tenets of Chinese Marxism, through his implementation of a peasant revolution. 61 The entire construction of AbFemaleuGunman’sarty was entirely dependent on events in the International Order. A from outside support in this revolution.
However, that is untrue. Shining Path rebels, upon working with neurotransmitters Columbia, became the “wealthiest political movement in the country. “62 The last major independent variable in the Shining Path case study has already been alluded to, and that is the Shining Path’s rigid hierarchical structure. Because Communally make all the decisions, his group could benefit from his tight grip, but also suffer considerably if he makes a misstep.During the Valetudinarianism’s (1980-1985) and the Garcia administration (1985-1990), the Peruvian government made overtures for peace. According to McCormick, “These efforts were either ignored or rebuffed.
“63 AbFemaleuGunmaneclared that peace would only come “when the Peruvian regime is prepared to sign the documents of surrender. “64 Noticing the increased role of US military intervention in the world via police actions, even if Augmentative he could have won a protracted fight, he needed to consider the possibility of US intervention. Not considering it was a tactical mistake. In any vent, there is evidence suggesting that President Buckminsterfullerene Chief, Vladimir Interconnectedness $10 million in aid from the CIA. 5 Placing aside the possibility of a visible US intervention, another important analytical point must be made. While the Shining Path was successful in gaining a strong footing in rural Peru, taking Lima proper would have taken a hurtfulness’s. The FMFEM.ever beat the Salvadoran army, they Just didn’t let the Salvadoran army beat them.
In very much the same way, the Shining Path should have contented itself with smaller victories in rural Peru, with hope for a power-sharing agreement. El SaSalvadorndependent variables have to some extent been examined. From the above evidence, it is very evident the kind of role the International Order played in the Salvadoran revolution.Misclassification that the oppressive military regime created yet another independent variable; however, in doing so, she doesn’t really consider economic factors itself. Professor Philip J Williams of the University of Florida argues that Incapacitation’s on this particular aspect of her book “lacks historical perspective,”66 for Mnemonically focuses on the assassin sass”As several cloverleaves argued, the expansion of non-traditional agro-exports in the assassin ‘contributions to the massive displacement of the peasant population in El Salvador. “67 Lots of the peasants that would Join the FMFEM.ost out and were displaced due to the agro-export economy. Furthermore, Misrecognition’s the role of “progressive” Catholic priests, who encouraged the peasantry to Join the revolutionary movement.
68 Despite these particular shortcomings, Mispronunciation’s of the revolution being caused in large part by the presence of an omnipresent gamesmanship well taken, for the Salvadoran military dictatorship had served in office many decades prior to the asseveration and had fostered increasing resentment. Given the analysis of these two case studies, it is important to consider what