1)Executive SummaryThree years after the”Revolution of Dignity”the Ukraine’s macroeconomic conditions arestable and on road of recovery(Appendix- Picture1). The country had to contend with slow global growthand confluenceof macroeconomic shocks & syndromes.Nevertheless,currently most of economic& financial indicators for Ukraine are positive, improving and tangible (Appendix – Picture 2 is the snapshot of keyeconomic indicators of Ukraine).
This has been achieved by stringent budgetand tax policieswith strong support fromInternational Monetary Fund (IMF -$17.5bn bailout program). This growth will be further strengthened byimplementation of ” EU-UkraineAssociation Agreement” which came into force from 1st September 2017.Ascountry’s budding recovery consolidates, the new context of economic activityshall be predominantly shaped by a few geo-economic factors:· The Russia nexus& Donbas conflict· The rapprochement with Europe· The ongoing global technology value chain realignmentTaking account of abovepoints we will summarize in this document, the comprehensive picture of currentstate of economy (with forecast) and our policy recommendations.
Some other keyvariables which have directinfluenceon country’s economic framework arementioned below:Key assets for Ukraine· Considerable agrarian capacity.· Continuing goodwill of “development partners”.· Significant geographic positioning.Key liabilitiesfor Ukraine· Deteriorating geopolitical outlook, especially on the Easternfront.· Structural institutional weaknesses, leading to highcorruption and nepotism.· Systemic weaknesses in public administration and poor policycredibility.· Low publictrust in the policy process.Key risks for Ukraine· Unresolved energy security problems (dependency on Russiangas).· Low foreign currency reserves and weak buffers against shocks downturns.· Worsening publicdebt portfolio, persistently high inflation andlending rate.